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Articles and Education
Articles and Education
The Coming Recession?
What does the 10 to 2 year yield spread tell us about the probability of a coming recession? What can we do about it?
DFA Perspective on the Premiums
Over time, there will be periods where a disciplined/diversified investment strategy underperforms other areas of the market. This piece from DFA warns against extrapolating recent results well into the future and abandoning a disciplined strategy as a result.
The Market Reset
U.S. markets have blown through a correction and some are approaching bear territory. In this article I give my thoughts and some context to the market movements.
Why Diversify Internationally?
U.S. markets have outperformed international markets for most of the last decade. This has lead to underperformance of diversified portfolios holding international investments, and investors may be inclined to reduce or eliminate international exposure. This article examines whether international diversification is beneficial to portfolios.
Must Be Present to Win
Markets have experienced a bout of recent volatility. This article examines the drawdown in the context of historical returns and our ability to time through downturns.
The Impact of Inflation
Over the last decade, inflation has run below the long-term average. As a result, many investors are ignoring the potential impact of inflation on long-term planning decisions. This brief article examines the risk of ignoring inflation, and what could potentially be done to plan for inflation.
Investors frequently expect investment advisors to be able to pick winners. This brief article focuses on the overall performance of equity mutual funds, the inability of past performance to provide a consistent signal for future outperformance, and generally the difficult task of picking winners.
Shiny Object Marketing
As consumers of products and services, we are often swayed by the “shiny object,” something which is attractive and distracts us from focusing on other less desirable characteristics of the offering. In this article I examine two investment shiny objects – the star manager and tactical portfolios.
Recent Market Volatility
After a period of relative calm in the markets, in recent days the increase in volatility in the stock market has resulted in renewed anxiety for many investors. This article examines the frequency of intrayear drawdowns and recovery, along with how missing just a few good trading days can impact investor long term returns.
As Goes January, So Goes the Year?
There are many market anomalies which have led to trading rules and myths. One such rule is the January Effect, which states that if the market has a negative return in January, the remainder of the year will be negative as well. But how consistent has this rule been? This brief article evaluates the actual historical predictive value of the January Effect.
The Season of Giving
This article focuses on the tax consequences of common charitable donations including common deductible contributions and non-deductible contributions. In addition, I look at keeping donations local as well as moving from charitable donations to a more philanthropic orientation.
The Dark Side of Medical Advances
Science has delivered amazing medical advances over the last decade. However, as medical advancements improve health outcomes and stretch our lives, it becomes more likely that we will all live longer with chronic conditions. It is necessary to plan for these longer lifetimes, whether for retirement income and living expenses or for long term care expenses.
The Uncommon Average
The US stock market has delivered an average annual return of around 10% since 1926. But short-term results may vary, and in any given period stock returns can be positive, negative, or flat. When setting expectations, it’s helpful to see the range of outcomes experienced by investors historically. For example, how often have the stock market’s annual returns actually aligned with its long-term average?
Lessons for the Next Crisis
It will soon be the 10-year anniversary of when, in early October 2007, the S&P 500 Index hit what was its highest point before losing more than half its value over the next year and a half during the global financial crisis. What are the lessons to be learned?
Quit Monkeying Around!
In the world of investment management there is an oft-discussed idea that blindfolded monkeys throwing darts at pages of stock listings can select portfolios that will do just as well, if not better, than both the market and the average portfolio constructed by professional money managers. If this is true, why might it be the case?
Getting What You Don’t Pay For
The costs you expect to pay are likely to be an important factor in selecting an investment strategy. Some of these costs are easily observed, and others are more difficult to assess. A good advisor can help investors look beyond any one cost metric and instead evaluate the total cost of ownership of an investment program.
When Rates Go Up, Do Stocks Go Down?
Unlike bond prices, which tend to go down when yields go up, stock prices might rise or fall with changes in interest rates. Should stock investors worry about changes in interest rates? Research shows there isn’t a clear link.
Market and Key Economics
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